How Trump’s sencond administration affect Vietnam’s pangasius export?
With the slogan 'America First,' the policy of raising import tariffs by 10-20% on all countries, including Vietnam, will reduce the competitiveness of Vietnamese products compared to U.S. goods. However, higher tariffs on China could present an opportunity for Vietnamese businesses to export to the U.S. and gain market share.
According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), Donald Trump’s return to the White House for a second term will significantly impact Vietnam, including its pangasius industry. His economic policies, such as increasing import tariffs, lowering corporate taxes, and attracting foreign direct investment (FDI) to the U.S., are expected to directly affect various sectors in Vietnam.
From 2019 to 2023, Vietnamese seafood, including pangasius, was among the top five products exported to the U.S., following electronics, textiles, wood, steel, and plastics. The U.S. is also one of the largest importers of Vietnamese seafood, including pangasius. Therefore, the election of a new president in the U.S., along with new policies, will have a significant impact on the future of export businesses.
Vietnamese seafood products are always in high demand in the U.S. market. Each year, Vietnam exports seafood worth USD 10 billion, with approximately USD 1.4 to USD 1.5 billion of that coming from exports to the U.S. A prime example is Vietnamese pangasius, with the U.S. being Vietnam’s second-largest importer, after China.
Vietnam’s pangasius exports reached over USD 2.4 billion in 2022 and USD 1.8 billion in 2023. Of these, exports to the United States were valued at USD 527 million in 2022, accounting for 22% of the total, and USD 271 million in 2023, representing 15%. According to the latest data from the International Trade Center (ITC), from February to August 2024, frozen pangasius fillets surpassed frozen tilapia fillets as the most consumed white-fish product in the U.S., highlighting strong and sustained demand for Vietnamese pangasius among American consumers.
Previously, in the preliminary conclusion of POR 20, two mandatory respondents received an anti-dumping duty rate of USD 0.00/kg. Six additional companies also qualified for the same rate. This outcome is highly favorable for Vietnamese pangasius exporters, as all eight companies under review were granted the USD 0.00/kg rate. This represents a reduction from the official rates in the previous POR 19 review, which ranged from USD 0.00/kg to USD 0.18/kg.
VASEP believes Vietnam’s pangasius export industry will face dual challenges from the Trump administration’s policies. Under the “America First” policy, a 10-20% import tariff on all countries, including Vietnam, could weaken the competitiveness of Vietnamese products against U.S. domestic goods. However, higher tariffs on China might create opportunities for Vietnamese businesses to export to the U.S. and gain market share.
According to Vietnam Customs, in the first half of October 2024, Vietnam’s pangasius exports to the US reached USD 19 million, an 89% increase compared to the same period last year. By October 15, cumulative pangasius exports to this market totaled USD 275 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 27%.
In the first nine months of this year, frozen pangasius fillets (HS code 0304) were the top catfish product imported by the United States from Vietnam, totaling USD 245 million, a 21% increase from the same period last year, and accounting for 96% of the total share.
In Q3 2024, exports of dried pangasius and other frozen products (whole fish, portions, swim bladders, etc.) to the US grew by 76%, reaching over USD 1.3 million compared to the same period last year. In the first nine months of 2024, exports of these products totaled over USD 3.2 million, a 3% year-on-year increase, accounting for 1% of the total export value.
The export of value-added pangasius to the U.S. continues to see strong growth, with a value of nearly USD 8 million, 17 times higher than the same period last year, accounting for 3% of the total pangasius export to the U.S.
VFM
