Vietnam seafood exports surge, but tariff uncertainty clouds outlook
Vietnam’s seafood exports recorded strong growth in May and the first five months of 2025, reaching USD 4.34 billion, up 22% year-on-year. May alone generated nearly USD 997 million in export value, a 20% increase from the same period last year.
The United States led the surge with a 61% jump in May, driven by a temporary reduction in anti-dumping duties to 10% from April 9 through July 9, well below the previously threatened 46% rate. Vietnamese exporters moved quickly to take advantage of this limited window.
Shrimp remained the top export, generating USD 1.71 billion in the first five months, up 32% year-on-year. May shipments alone reached USD 415 million, the highest monthly total so far this year. Pangasius exports rose 11%, with a 13% increase in May. Tuna exports also showed signs of recovery, up 7.6% in May, bringing the year-to-date total to over USD 405 million (+5%).
Other seafood categories saw notable gains, including bivalves (+63%), squid and octopus, and crab.
By market, the U.S. accounted for over USD 774 million in exports (+27%), but growth remains fragile. If the 46% duty is reinstated after July 9, many exporters may be forced to suspend shipments, potentially leading to a sharp decline in third-quarter orders and broader supply chain disruptions.
Meanwhile, the EU and Japan posted steady growth of 14% and 18%, respectively. Exports to China-Hong Kong surged 50%, led by shrimp (+90%) and bivalves (+285%).
Looking ahead, Vietnam’s 2025 seafood export performance will largely depend on the U.S. tariff trajectory. If the 10% rate is maintained or lifted entirely, total exports could exceed USD 10 billion. However, a return to the 46% duty could drag full-year exports down to around USD 9 billion, posing significant challenges for the industry.
VFM
