Markets

Vietnam seafood exports surge, but tariff uncertainty clouds outlook

Vietnam’s seafood exports recorded strong growth in May and the first five months of 2025, reaching USD 4.34 billion, up 22% year-on-year. May alone generated nearly USD 997 million in export value, a 20% increase from the same period last year.

The United States led the surge with a 61% jump in May, driven by a temporary reduction in anti-dumping duties to 10% from April 9 through July 9, well below the previously threatened 46% rate. Vietnamese exporters moved quickly to take advantage of this limited window.

Shrimp remained the top export, generating USD 1.71 billion in the first five months, up 32% year-on-year. May shipments alone reached USD 415 million, the highest monthly total so far this year. Pangasius exports rose 11%, with a 13% increase in May. Tuna exports also showed signs of recovery, up 7.6% in May, bringing the year-to-date total to over USD 405 million (+5%).

Other seafood categories saw notable gains, including bivalves (+63%), squid and octopus, and crab.

By market, the U.S. accounted for over USD 774 million in exports (+27%), but growth remains fragile. If the 46% duty is reinstated after July 9, many exporters may be forced to suspend shipments, potentially leading to a sharp decline in third-quarter orders and broader supply chain disruptions.

Meanwhile, the EU and Japan posted steady growth of 14% and 18%, respectively. Exports to China-Hong Kong surged 50%, led by shrimp (+90%) and bivalves (+285%).

Looking ahead, Vietnam’s 2025 seafood export performance will largely depend on the U.S. tariff trajectory. If the 10% rate is maintained or lifted entirely, total exports could exceed USD 10 billion. However, a return to the 46% duty could drag full-year exports down to around USD 9 billion, posing significant challenges for the industry.

VFM

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