Vietnamese seafood exporters halt shipments to U.S. to avoid higher tariffs

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), seafood export turnover in June reached USD 876 million, up just 4% year-on-year, with the main reason being a 26% drop in shipments to the U.S. For the first six months, total seafood exports were estimated at USD 5.2 billion, an increase of nearly 19% compared to the same period in 2024.

While U.S. shipments stalled, exports to China, Japan, South Korea and ASEAN markets continued to post strong growth in June, ranging from 15% to nearly 28%. In contrast, exports to the EU slipped 1%, while sales to the Middle East fell 16% due to conflict in the region. Exports to Israel – a major market for canned tuna, plunged over 50%.

By product category, tuna saw the steepest decline in June, dropping more than 31%, mainly due to U.S. tariff impacts. For the six-month period, tuna exports were down nearly 2%. Shrimp and pangasius also saw slower growth amid tariff concerns. By the end of June, shrimp exports totaled USD 2.07 billion (up 26%), while pangasius exports reached USD 1 billion (up 10%).

VASEP said the outlook for shrimp and pangasius in the second half of 2025 will largely depend on U.S. tariff policy. Shrimp is particularly at risk of facing cumulative tariffs, including retaliatory tariffs, anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties. Pangasius exporters are more optimistic after seven Vietnamese companies recently received a 0% anti-dumping duty rate from the U.S. Department of Commerce in its 20th administrative review (POR20). If retaliatory tariffs can be managed, pangasius may have an opportunity to rebound.

VASEP outlined three scenarios for the second half of the year:

• Scenario 1: A 10% retaliatory tariff would see total 2025 seafood export value reach an estimated $9.5 billion, about $500 million lower than previous forecasts, with other markets partly absorbing shipments diverted from the U.S.
• Scenario 2: Tariffs exceeding 10%, potentially up to 46%, could push export revenue down to around USD 9 billion or lower.
• Worst-case scenario: Fierce competition from Ecuador, India, Thailand and Indonesia – countries with lower tariffs, would erode Vietnam’s U.S. market share. Exports would shift more toward Japan, the EU and ASEAN, but those markets would only partially offset losses given subdued global demand.

On July 1, U.S. President Donald Trump announced he would not extend the July 9 deadline for reinstating higher retaliatory tariffs and warned that trade talks could be terminated, with the possibility of additional tariffs on some countries, including Japan. Previously, the U.S. had suspended the higher retaliatory tariffs (ranging from 11% to 50%) for 90 days to allow negotiations, but the suspension is set to expire on July 8. From July 9, the higher tariffs are expected to resume for countries that have not reached trade agreements with the U.S.

VFM