Outlook for Vietnam’s shrimp prices in the second half of 2025

Market overview (January-June 2025)

From January to June, domestic shrimp prices recovered slightly following a prolonged downturn in 2023 and early 2024. Black tiger shrimp prices were relatively stable at around VND 150,000-250,000 per kilogram (size 20 pcs/kg), supported by demand from Japan and South Korea. Whiteleg shrimp prices were more volatile, ranging from VND 90,000-150,000 per kilogram (size 30 pcs/kg), generally below farmers’ expectations.

Export volumes showed modest growth from April as orders from the United States and China increased. However, high costs for feed, post-larvae, and veterinary products continued to squeeze profit margins.

Factors affecting prices in H2 2025

Seafood analysts expect global demand to continue recovering. In the United States, importers are rebuilding inventories ahead of the year-end holiday season. The European market is growing slowly but steadily, with increasing interest in organic and ASC-certified shrimp.

China is forecast to ramp up imports in the fourth quarter to meet Lunar New Year demand and support a recovering food service sector. This could drive prices higher, especially for large, premium-quality shrimp.

In Vietnam, major farming provinces such as Bac Lieu, Ca Mau, and Soc Trang are entering their second main crop of the year. Unpredictable weather, disease outbreaks such as EMS and white spot, and high costs for seed and feed remain key challenges. Any shortfall in production could lead to localized shortages of large-size shrimp and push prices up in the fourth quarter.

Vietnamese shrimp will continue to benefit from tariff preferences under trade deals like the EVFTA and CPTPP from July. However, stricter enforcement of technical standards, including antibiotic residue limits and traceability, could pose barriers. Compliance is expected to help maintain market share and secure premium pricing.

Industry recommendations

Industry groups are encouraging farmers to align stocking and harvest schedules with market cycles and avoid simultaneous harvesting that can depress prices. Improving quality, ensuring shrimp are free of antibiotic residues, achieving larger sizes, and meeting international certifications, is also emphasized.

Exporters are being urged to standardize sourcing, strengthen traceability systems, and diversify markets to reduce reliance on a few key destinations. Investment in value-added processing is seen as critical to meeting changing consumer demand and boosting product value.

The second half of 2025 is expected to bring opportunities for price recovery, especially during the peak export season at year-end. However, industry leaders warn that capturing these gains will require proactive planning, quality improvements, and stronger supply chain integration to support sustainable growth in Vietnam’s shrimp sector.

VFM