Prices of shrimp are quite good in May with shrimps size 70 pcs/kg being sold at 105,000 dong/kg while production cost is at around 70,000 dong. Growing demand for post larvae amid summer heat and salt intrusion makes farmers ramp up stocking in the main crop, even though it’s a bit late.
This is good news to shrimp companies because very few farmers stocked shrimp in the last two months when prices fell due to covid-19, shrimps were shocked and easily infected due to fluctuating environment which was caused by summer heat and salt intrusion. This may result in short supply of shrimp material for processing in early quarter III. If any, shrimp price will not decrease or decrease in just a short time. It is forecasted that a good price will be set from early quarter III, which means it recovers earlier than the last two years. Even though it is a forecast, it’s presumed on a firm basis:
- Stockpiles in major markets such as the EU, US and Japan are not much.
- Powerhouses of shrimp cultivation are facing challenges. China is coping with the new virus CIV-1 attacking shrimps. India remains in lockdown until mid May, making shrimp supply chain fall and stocking drop. Being a hard hit country by coronavirus, Ecuador’s processing factories are in a serious lack of labor. Indonesia and Thailand are still under the influence of the pandemic and might face a short supply. The slump in global shrimp supply is unknown, but presumably ranging at least 20%.
- The closure of restaurants, hotels and travelling systems have decreased the demand for high value shrimp. As shrimp is irreplaceable and highly nutritious food, the retail market will see a growing demand for this species when consumers buy shrimp for home-cooked meals. The demand may decrease but not as much as a decline in supply.
Covid-19 subsides, the Government is ramping up a recovery program and economic development. Where there’s life, there’s hope, this is happening to the shrimp sector. When the demand is decreasing, the price will be set at a good level. What should be concerned is disease outbreak. Thus, growing ponds must be carefully prepared, water is frequently filtered, post larvae is carefully selected for SPF assurance, and biosafety in the farming area is paid special attention. Prevention is better than cure, especially the disease without a specific treatment.
In May, shrimp consumption will increase compared to the previous month, paving a good chance for shrimp farmers at the end of this year when the covid-19 is over.
VFM
