Vasep: Vietnam seafood exports on track for USD 10 billion in 2025, but 2026 poses major challenges
Vietnam’s seafood exports are accelerating strongly in 2025, setting the stage to potentially hit the USD 10 billion milestone. However, despite the upbeat numbers, the industry is bracing for significant headwinds in 2026.
According to Vietnam Customs, seafood export value reached USD 7.34 billion in the first eight months of 2025, up 16.7% year-on-year. August alone contributed USD 1.12 billion, up 13.8%. Vasep called this an “impressive growth rate” given ongoing market volatility.
Shrimp continues to drive the sector with USD 2.97 billion (+23%), including a surge in lobster exports at USD 536 million (+194%). Pangasius reached USD 1.42 billion (+9.7%), while mollusks generated USD 649 million (+20%). By contrast, tuna slipped 2.3% to USD 633 million.
In terms of markets, CPTPP countries led with USD 2.01 billion (27% of total exports). China and Hong Kong followed with USD 1.56 billion (+39%), the US ranked third with USD 1.25 billion (+8.7%), while the EU and South Korea posted USD 777 million and USD 558 million, respectively.
With this momentum, Vasep expects seafood exports to reach the USD 10 billion mark in 2025. But from 2026, the sector faces multiple risks: a 20% retaliatory tariff in the US, potential anti-dumping duties under POR19, and a US import ban on products from 12 fisheries under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA), which could cost over USD 500 million annually. In addition, the EU’s unresolved IUU yellow card and stricter rules on tuna and raw material traceability add further hurdles.
Analysts forecast that US buyers will ramp up orders through mid-November 2025 to get ahead of the trade barriers, fueling strong growth in September and October. But exports may slow from late November onward, signaling a difficult year ahead in 2026.
To mitigate risks, many companies are eyeing expansion in Asia, the Middle East, and South America. Still, Vasep stressed that the US remains Vietnam’s top market. The association urged the industry to prioritize lifting the EU IUU yellow card and addressing US tariff issues. Otherwise, after a stellar 2025, Vietnam’s seafood sector could face a highly challenging 2026.
VFM
