Vietnam shrimp faces US market risks as duties threaten growth
Vietnam’s shrimp sector is enjoying double-digit export growth in 2025, but looming trade barriers in the United States could derail momentum, according to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP).
Shrimp exports reached USD 2.5 billion in the first seven months, up 24% year-on-year, with July sales of USD 410 million. Yet shipments to the US dropped 29% in July to USD 63 million, bringing the seven-month total to USD 404 million, only 3% higher than a year earlier.
VASEP attributed the slowdown to Washington’s 20% countervailing duty on Vietnamese shrimp, a rate that outstrips Ecuador’s 15% and the 19% applied to Indonesia and the Philippines. Narrower margins have already prompted exporters to rethink pricing and orders.
The pressure intensified in June when the US Department of Commerce’s preliminary review (POR19) set steep anti-dumping duties for several leading Vietnamese producers. “If the final decision in December remains unchanged, Vietnamese shrimp may effectively be shut out of the US market,” VASEP cautioned.
While the US outlook remains uncertain, Asia and CPTPP markets are delivering strong gains. Exports to China and Hong Kong jumped 78% to USD 710 million, accounting for nearly a third of total sales. Shipments to CPTPP countries rose 36% to USD 699 million, led by Japan with USD 320 million, up 15%.
The EU market climbed 17% to USD 309 million, supported by the EVFTA trade pact and easing inflation, while South Korea imports grew 13% to USD 203 million, buoyed by processed and ready-to-eat shrimp demand.
By product, whiteleg shrimp accounted for USD 1.6 billion, or 63% of total shipments, up 8%. Black tiger shrimp contributed USD 260 million, while other shrimp products more than doubled to USD 657 million, fueled by frozen orders from Asian markets.
VASEP projects shrimp exports could reach USD 3.6-3.8 billion this year in a positive scenario, anchored by Asian growth, higher-value processed products to Japan, and steady EU demand.
But risks loom in the second half as competition intensifies from Ecuador, Indonesia and the Philippines, all benefiting from lower tariffs, and as the US decision on anti-dumping duties approaches.
“To sustain momentum, exporters need to diversify markets, expand value-added production, comply with international certification standards and adopt flexible pricing strategies,” VASEP said.
VFM
