Vietnamese agricultural products unlikely to be heavily impacted by trade war
Concerns have been rising among businesses that a potential U.S.-China trade war or broader global trade conflicts could hinder Vietnam's agricultural exports in 2025.
On February 1, U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, imposing tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. The new policy levies a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico and a 10% tariff on Chinese imports. Shipments already en route to the U.S. before the order’s enactment will not be affected.
This decision has sparked fears of a new trade war and its potential ripple effects on the global economy, including Vietnam.
However, on February 6, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Phung Duc Tien reassured the public that the U.S.’s new tariffs are unlikely to severely impact Vietnam’s agricultural, forestry, and fishery exports to the American market. While acknowledging some challenges, Tien emphasized that the strategic partnership between Vietnam and the U.S. would help maintain and grow export activities.
Currently, the U.S. is Vietnam’s second-largest export market, with agricultural exports reaching USD 13.8 billion in 2024, accounting for 21.8% of Vietnam’s total export turnover. The comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries plays a key role in safeguarding trade cooperation.
Since January 2024, Vietnam and the U.S. have resolved anti-dumping tax disputes concerning pangasius exports. Vinh Hoan Corporation was notably removed from the list of companies subject to these tariffs, marking a significant achievement for Vietnam’s seafood sector.
Another milestone came in October 2029 when the U.S. Department of Agriculture recognized Vietnam’s food safety control system for catfish as equivalent to U.S. standards. This acknowledgment reflects Vietnam’s efforts in ensuring product quality, contributing to a USD 300 million export value for pangasius in 2024, representing 17% of Vietnam’s total seafood exports to the U.S.
To proactively address potential policy shifts from importing markets, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) has collaborated with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of Industry and Trade to expand into new markets, especially Halal markets, while maintaining traditional ones. MARD also focuses on preparing cultivation and farming areas to meet food safety, traceability, and transparency requirements.
Deputy Minister Tien highlighted that despite greater challenges in expanding internationally, Vietnam can achieve sustainable growth through efficient, internationally standardized production.
Vietnam’s agricultural sector continues to show stable growth. In January 2025, the sector recorded positive growth, with food demand rising by 10-15% during the Lunar New Year (Tet) holiday due to thorough preparation, stable supply, and minimal price fluctuations. However, Tien noted that agricultural, forestry, and fishery exports slightly declined in January 2025, totaling USD 5.08 billion, down 4.9% compared to the same period last year.
While global political and economic uncertainties could affect international trade, MARD remains confident that Vietnam can sustain and expand its agricultural exports to the U.S. by continually improving product quality to meet international standards.
VFM
