Vietnam’s seafood exports to U.S. plunge in June amid tax concerns, Middle East disruptions

U.S. imports plunge; East Asia maintains growth

According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), seafood export turnover in June reached USD 876 million, up 4% from the same period last year but sharply down from the more than 20% growth posted in May. Total exports for the first half of the year reached USD 5.2 billion, up nearly 19% year-on-year.

The United States, China, and Japan remained Vietnam’s top three seafood markets, accounting for 18.2%, 19.6%, and 15% of total export value, respectively, in the first six months. However, in June alone, exports to the U.S. dropped by 26% year-on-year.

Although shipments to the U.S. rose 16% in the first half overall, driven by exporters rushing orders ahead of a new retaliatory tariff set to take effect on July 9, many companies suspended exports in June to mitigate the risk of steep duties.

Meanwhile, exports to China, Japan, South Korea, and ASEAN continued to grow robustly in June, with increases ranging from 15% to 28%. Exports to the EU were flat, slipping 1%, while shipments to the Middle East plunged 16% due to conflict-related disruptions.

U.S. tariffs hit tuna, shrimp, pangasius sectors

Tuna was the hardest-hit category in June, with export value plunging over 31% year-on-year, mainly due to new U.S. tariffs, Vietnam’s largest tuna export market. Tuna exports for the first six months fell nearly 2%.

Shrimp and pangasius exports also decelerated under U.S. tax pressure. As of end-June, shrimp exports totaled USD 2.07 billion, up 26%, while pangasius reached USD 1 billion, up 10%.

The outlook for the second half of the year hinges heavily on Washington’s final tariff decisions. VASEP projects that if post-July 9 tariffs are capped at 10%, Vietnam’s 2025 seafood exports could total USD 9.5 billion, USD 500 million below earlier forecasts. If tariffs exceed 10%, the export value could fall below USD 9 billion.

In that scenario, the U.S. may no longer be a stable market, particularly for products with complex supply chains.

There is a brighter outlook for the pangasius sector after seven Vietnamese firms recently received zero anti-dumping duty rates from the U.S. Department of Commerce, potentially boosting exports if countervailing tax risks are well managed.

Middle East: High-potential but high-kisk market 

Once a bright spot in Vietnam’s seafood market diversification strategy, the Middle East saw exports nearly double in five years, from USD 198 million in 2020 to USD 366 million in 2024. However, in the first five months of 2025, exports to the region dropped 12% to USD 130 million amid escalating armed conflicts.

Canned and pouch-packed tuna and pangasius accounted for 70% of Vietnam’s seafood exports to the region. While demand remains strong thanks to a young population, a growing middle class, and widespread Halal requirements, the outbreak of conflict between Israel and Iran in mid-June severely disrupted the Suez–Red Sea shipping route, sharply raising transportation and insurance costs.

According to VASEP experts, the worsening geopolitical environment has made Vietnamese exporters increasingly wary of shipment, payment, and customs clearance risks, while rising costs for packaging, freezing, plant operations, and logistics further squeeze margins. Smaller exporters are particularly vulnerable when it comes to securing long-term contracts.

Strategic response

VASEP recommends that companies further diversify their export markets, not only focusing on Israel or the UAE, but also tapping into emerging Islamic markets such as Jordan, Libya, and Pakistan. At the same time, firms should strengthen exports to the EU, Japan, and ASEAN, where free trade agreements are in effect and demand is rebounding.

Additionally, VASEP urges companies to increase the number of Halal-certified factories recognized by Islamic countries, seek preferential credit support, and accelerate Halal certification processes. It also calls for the establishment of a Halal advisory center in Vietnam to bolster export efforts into Muslim-majority markets.

VFM