Tuna exports slump in June as market headwinds mount
Tuna exports fell sharply in June 2025 amid regulatory hurdles, market uncertainty, and weakening demand in major economies, casting doubt on the sector’s outlook for the rest of the year.
According to Vietnam Customs, tuna export value dropped 21% year-on-year to just over USD 67 million in June. While total exports in H1 2025 remained relatively flat at USD 473 million, marking a marginal 0.2% increase over the same period last year – the monthly contraction signals mounting challenges for the sector.
Major markets falter, CPTPP offers glimmer of hope
Shipments to the U.S. plunged 41% in June to USD 18 million, as exporters held back on deliveries due to fears of possible retaliatory tariffs. Despite the slowdown, the U.S. remained Vietnam’s top tuna market in H1, accounting for USD 184 million or 39% of total exports.
Exports to the EU slid 17% in June to nearly USD 16 million. While cumulative exports to the bloc edged up 1% to USD 109 million, key markets such as the Netherlands and Italy posted significant declines. Germany stood out with a 36% increase. Overall, weak consumer sentiment in Southern Europe and elevated logistics costs continue to weigh on the region’s demand.
In contrast, the CPTPP bloc recorded solid growth, with tuna exports rising 11% year-on-year to USD 62 million in H1. Japan and Canada led the recovery, posting gains of 24% and 15% respectively, helping to offset declines elsewhere.
Smaller markets show sharp swings
Export volumes to niche markets such as Israel, Russia, and Chile were hit hard by regional instability and geopolitical tensions. Shipments to Israel, in particular, have fallen steadily since the start of the year.
Thailand, however, recorded a dramatic 137% jump to USD 20 million, emerging as a key re-export and processing hub within Southeast Asia.
Product mix under pressure
Frozen tuna fillets and loins (HS code 0304) remained the sector’s anchor, posting a 10% rise thanks to consistent demand from international processors.
However, processed tuna products (HS code 16), particularly canned items, faced a double blow, dropping 5% in volume and 14% in value due to raw material shortages and reduced EU orders.
Policy delays and traceability rules add strain
Regulatory uncertainty continues to cloud the sector. Delays in amending Decree 37/2024/NĐ-CP have caused exporters to miss peak fishing windows, exposing them to compliance risks and increasing reliance on imports.
Proposals to shift to quota-based fisheries management have sparked concerns over added bureaucratic complexity.
At the same time, stricter traceability, invoicing, and vessel documentation requirements are making it increasingly difficult for firms to utilize domestically sourced tuna, undermining efforts to qualify for preferential tariffs under the EU-Vietnam Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA).
Vietnam’s duty-free quota for processed tuna exports to the EU (11,500 tons/year) is typically exhausted within the first 4-5 months, leaving exporters to face Most-Favored Nation (MFN) tariffs. As a result, the share of shipments eligible for EVFTA tariff preferences has plunged from 80-100% in early years to just 30% over the past two years.
Bleak outlook without policy action
With rising costs, shifting demand patterns, and regulatory uncertainty, Vietnam’s tuna industry faces a tough road ahead.
Unless urgent reforms are introduced, particularly on quota access, domestic sourcing rules, and trade facilitation, the sector is unlikely to match 2024’s performance. Industry stakeholders warn that Vietnam risks losing market share to more agile competitors in the region.
VFM
