Vietnam’s pangasius market H2 2025: Tight supply supports export price recovery

In terms of value, most key markets saw slight declines: China and Hong Kong fell 3%, the U.S. down 0.3%, Brazil down 5%, and Mexico down 33%. By contrast, the UK and EU saw modest gains, while Thailand surged 65%. The average export price in July dropped 1% to USD 2.14/kg. Farm-gate prices for raw fish fell 9-10%, and fry prices declined 5%, though fry prices rebounded in late July and early August due to limited supply.

Pangasius prices expected to recover

Looking into the second half of the year, prices are expected to rise. Limited raw fish supply, low fry survival rates, and farmers holding back stock in anticipation of higher prices are likely to push export prices up from September. Adverse weather conditions and rising farming costs further support the upward trend.

Limited fry supply also pressures the market. Farmers are retaining smaller fish to reach larger sizes, prolonging shortages through August. Once processing plants deplete their reserves, farm-gate prices are forecast to continue climbing, potentially reaching levels not seen in the past three years.

Year-end export challenges and opportunities

In the U.S., anti-dumping duties on Vietnamese pangasius dropped from 46% to 20% in August, but demand remains slow as buyers focus on clearing existing inventory. China also recorded sluggish purchases, particularly for whole fish and frozen fillets, despite slight improvements in average prices.

Conversely, the EU and CPTPP markets remain steady, supported by tariff incentives and stable demand. Export prices to the EU may hit a low by late August before rebounding in September amid tight raw material supply. ASEAN markets maintain consistent consumption, while South America and the Middle East are emerging as diversification targets, reducing dependence on the U.S. and China. Brazil remains a potential risk if the U.S. imposes a 50% import duty.

Vietnam’s pangasius sector is entering a critical phase. Limited supply is driving up raw material costs, while U.S. trade policy fluctuations and unstable Chinese demand create both pressure and opportunity. Leveraging EU and CPTPP trade agreements and expanding into ASEAN, South America, and the Middle East will be key to sustaining growth. With prices trending upward, the sector is well-positioned to achieve strong profits and meet its 2025 export targets.

VFM