Vietnam seafood sector braces for U.S. tariffs, eyes strong finish to 2025
Vietnam’s seafood industry is facing both headwinds and opportunities in the second half of 2025, with a 20% U.S. countervailing tariff on shrimp and tuna set to take effect on Aug. 7, adding to existing anti-dumping and anti-subsidy duties. The measures are expected to disrupt shipments to the U.S., one of Vietnam’s top markets.
Exports up 17% in first seven months
Vietnam’s seafood exports rose 17.2% in the January-July period to USD 6.22 billion, according to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP). July exports reached USD 971 million, up 6.1% from a year earlier.
Shipments to the U.S. fell 19.6% in July to USD 145.8 million amid concerns over the pending tariff, though year-to-date sales still climbed 10.4%. Exports to China surged 31.7% in July to USD 221.5 million, bringing the seven-month total to USD 1.33 billion, up 42.6%, driven by stronger demand for shrimp and squid.
Japan, the European Union, South Korea and ASEAN markets also posted gains, supported by competitive pricing, stable supply and favorable shifts in global seafood demand. Shrimp remained the largest export at USD 2.49 billion, up 23.6%, though U.S. orders have slowed. Once the 20% duty is imposed, Vietnamese shrimp will be priced above Ecuador’s (15%) and on par with Indonesia and the Philippines (19%).
Firms adapt to shifting trade landscape
VASEP warned that the risk of losing U.S. market share is “very real,” particularly if shrimp is also hit with a provisional 33.29% anti-dumping duty. Tuna exporters face higher tariffs than competitors in Ecuador, the Philippines and Indonesia, as well as tight raw material supplies.
Still, exporters are finding opportunities in rebounding demand from China, ASEAN and Japan, and from EU moves to ease technical barriers. Trade pacts including the EVFTA, CPTPP and UKVFTA continue to provide tariff advantages for value-added products.
VASEP forecasts seafood exports of USD 9.0 – 9.2 billion for 2025, including USD 3.6 – 3.8 billion in shrimp, USD 1.8 billion in pangasius, USD 850 – 900 million in tuna, and nearly USD 3 billion in other marine products.
VFM
