With the U.S. no longer the top market, what’s next for Vietnam’s seafood?
Volatile U.S. tariff policies have led to erratic swings in Vietnam’s seafood exports in the first half of 2025, surging one month, plunging the next. For the first time, China has overtaken the U.S. to become Vietnam’s largest seafood export market, prompting urgent calls for strategic restructuring among Vietnamese exporters.
According to the Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers (VASEP), exports to the U.S. reached USD 905 million in the first six months of the year, up 17.5% year-on-year. However, this growth was largely driven by a rush to ship products before the U.S. imposed retaliatory tariffs on July 9.
After stabilizing in March and April, exports to the U.S. jumped 61% in May to a peak of USD 234 million. But in June, amid market uncertainty and a wait-and-see approach from buyers, shipments plunged nearly 18% to just USD 131 million. Shrimp, pangasius, and tuna – the top three products, continued to dominate, accounting for 77% of total export value with over USD 700 million.
A key shift has been in market structure: the U.S. now represents only 17% of Vietnam’s seafood export value, ceding the top spot to China, which imported USD 1.1 billion worth of Vietnamese seafood, a 45% year-on-year surge.
VASEP attributes this shift to a volatile trade environment, with the U.S. frequently adjusting tariffs since April 2025. The Trump administration has used retaliatory tariffs as a negotiation tool, frequently changing rates, timelines, and target countries. From a blanket 10% rate, the U.S. raised tariffs to 36% for Thailand and 32% for Indonesia, leaving both exporters and importers scrambling.
This unpredictability poses a particular threat to the seafood industry, which is heavily dependent on seasonal cycles and logistics costs. Vietnamese exporters have struggled to plan production, set prices, and confirm delivery schedules, while U.S. buyers have been unable to determine final landed costs.
In response to this new trade order, VASEP has urged Vietnamese companies to accelerate strategic restructuring. Key recommendations include:
Market diversification to reduce dependence on the U.S., while capitalizing on advantages from FTAs such as CPTPP, the EU-Vietnam FTA, and the Korea-Vietnam FTA; Supply chain optimization to better control costs and logistics risks; Enhanced traceability and legal compliance across the entire value chain from raw materials to exports to avoid accusations of tariff circumvention; Technology adoption and digital transformation to increase agility in the face of shifting policy and market conditions.
According to VASEP representative Le Hang, only through proactive restructuring can Vietnamese seafood companies maintain their competitive edge amid a rapidly changing global landscape.
VFM
